Russian invasion of Ukraine has devastating effects to everyone around the world. War as we know it brings incalculable loss of human life, property and even opportunity. We’re seeing crisis after crisis as we enter the new decade.
In this blog, we will look at how this war will affect the ongoing seafarer crisis brought by the Covid-19 pandemic. Since Russia and Ukraine both a major supplier of seafarers onboard merchant fleet, you can clearly see why this is a problem in itself.
Both a key player
Both countries are a key player in the global seafarer market and supplies 14.5% of the total seafarers onboard world’s merchant fleet. Let’s take a look at the stats:
Figures above are the latest from International Chamber of Shipping (ICS). 14.5% is a huge number to fill in. With the current crisis alone (Covid-19), there may be a possibility of a seafarer shortage to the global seafarer supply due to invasion of Ukraine.
There may be a possibility of sanctions of free travel to Russian seafarers as consequence to this aggression. These are highly possible scenarios that may unfold in the coming months. On the other hand, most seafarers from Ukraine will likely be at home during this time to be with their family or fight for their country.
As Ukrainian government will likely to fall under Russian rule, it is a possibility that Russia might not acknowledge Ukrainian issued certificates. Maritime Administration of Ukraine might not exist anymore after the invasion is over.
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Who will step up and fill the void?
Other major supplier of seafarers are China, The Philippines and Indonesia. China being the largest supplier of officers while the Philippines with the most ratings. The question is who will fill this void left by Russia and Ukraine?
Hence, we may see an increasing number of seafarers from other nations as world trade continues. 90% of it are carried by ships. The importance of manning world’s ships are so vital and thus, should not be impeded by other factors such as wars or pandemic.
Crewing managers will have to secure and hire more and more qualified seafarers they can find. And as predicted by BIMCO and ICS in 2015, there will be a shortage of around 150,000 seafarers by 2025. It may come sooner than we think.
An opportunity for some?
If you come to think of it, this might be an open door to our fellow seafarers who wants to board ships as they like. A shortage of supply would mean a high demand of seafarers from other supplying nations. A seafarer crisis will exist if these nations cant even help in filling this vacancies left by Ukraine and Russia.
There are plenty of seafarers can fill this shortage but most likely it will take time to do so. Contingency plans are being taken by companies who are heavily reliant in Ukrainian and Russian market to man their ships. Hence, we may see a whole lot of faces rather than just these Top 5 supplier countries.
New kids in the bloc will have to go through some familiar routines upon embarkation like certifications, medical exam, etc. Principals might actually get a discount and negotiate lower wages for this new and upcoming nationalities serving their fleet.
However, there is a risk with these new nationalities onboard as they have yet to prove their track record versus Ukrainian and Russian seafarers.